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Does Bitcoins seem to be out of reach? For some analysts, it is exactly the opposite: this threshold would be an opportunity to buy. While the market oscillates between the bull excitement and concern about correction, several basic indicators call on you to review certainty. Basic dynamics appear behind the numbers, very different from previous cycles. Bitcoin far from the summit could still have space.
A signal of trust in the ecosystem
March 28 Bitcoin reached a local summit for $ 87,241 before giving up land to end up to $ 81,331 31. This decrease of 6.8 % caused liquidation of $ 230 million in long positions on the term contract.
Such brutal correction occurred in the global context of the tension in traditional markets, where investors responded to a number of negative macroeconomic signals.
Among them, the United States announcement of 25 % of foreign vehicles on 26 March has intensified concerns about the World Trade War.
In this process, several major financial institutions have revised their growth forecasts for US stock markets.
Market indicators provide information to increase risk aversion that has exceeded only the crypto sector:
- The S&P 500 has seen its term contracts reaching its lowest level from March 14;
- Goldman Sachs has reduced its ends -the target target for the S&P 500 and brought it back from 6,200 to 5,700 points;
- Barclays also reduced its forecast from 6,600 to 5,900 points;
- Gold reached 31 on March for a new historical summit for $ 3,100 per ounce, which confirmed its refugee status at the time of uncertainty;
- On the other hand, the dollar index (DXY) between February and end of March to the end of March from 107.60 to 104.10, translating the progressive weakening of the US currency.
In this context, Bitcoin seems to have been kidnapped by global dynamics withdrawal of risk assets. However, this decline is not accompanied, as expected, the basic signals of the network condition or investors’ trust. And that’s exactly what reveals the continuation of the analysis.
Bitcoin and S&P 500: towards decoreliament?
While the S&P 500 stock market has introduced a positive performance since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin seems to be gradually liberating from its usual correlation with stock markets.
This decoration could mean that investors now consider BTC a full -fledged assets that are potentially used as inflation or macroeconomic uncertainty. We are witnessing the shifting of the paradigm in the way the market evaluates bitcoins.
Another important indicator is the ratio of the MVRV (market value to the realized value), which compares the current market capitalization with the capitalization of bitcoins, remains on historical works associated with market peaks.
In other words, not even $ 80,000, Bitcoin would not be in a situation of excessive overcome. Historically, this ratio made it possible to predict the summity of the Haussier market, and its current level suggests that a significant increase in increase remains.
This leveling of market dynamics can well define strategies of institutional and individual investors. Since Bitcoins liberate from traditional logic on the stock market and basic data, it remains solid, the scenario of the extended bull cycle gains credibility. If macroeconomic and regulatory conditions remain favorable, the continuation of the ascending trend must not be excluded, although the price level perceived as a high public.
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A graduate of the Toulouse and the Blockchain Consultant Certification certification holder and I joined the adventure of Cointribuna in 2019. I convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many economy sectors, committing to raising awareness and informing the general public about how the ecosysty developed. My goal is to allow everyone to better understand blockchain and take the opportunity they offer. I try to provide an objective analysis of messages every day, decrypt trends on the market, hand over the latest technological innovations and introduce the economic and social issues of this revolution.
Renunciation
The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.